Here are the numbers: 250 galleries, over 2,000 artists, and an average temperature of 70 degrees over the next 4 days. Taking the good weather and immense amount of displayed inventiveness into consideration, what reason does a true-blue art lover have to not attend this year’s Art Basel Miami Beach?

Oh, right. The economy—this year’s favorite go-to phrase for blame.

Art Basel Miami Beach is the equally-talented younger sister of Switzerland’s prestigious 39-year-old Art Basel phenom. An exclusive selection of top galleries from North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia and Africa present 20th- and 21st-century work from thousands of both renowned and up-and-coming artists. Collectors, dealers, critics, curators, and pretend-aficionados (a.k.a celebrities) browse and buy, getting first dibs on the newest evolution of rare and contemporary works.

However, what was last year’s splurge-worthy fest for jetsetters is this year’s rollback reception. Everyone is feeling the effects—except for maybe Russell Simmons, who, without breaking a sweat, planned a party at the new Mondrian Hotel. Anyway, keep reading for clues of exactly when and where the market will completely bottom out.

1. Last year, Sotheby, the premier bidding house, held a pre-fair auction and grossed its then-highest total ever in contemporary-art sales with $315.9 million. This year, they brought in $125 million. That’s significantly lower for those who are counting. And these days, who isn’t?

2. At least 22 satellite fairs, vying with collectors spaces and museums for much-needed attention, are set to orbit the main shindig. That’s two less than last year, and with no new names on the bill, either.

3. UBS, Art Basel Miami Beach’s principal sponsor, is burying its face in its figuratively dirty hands. The bank, currently being investigated by the IRS, has lost $50 billion, and its top wealth manager was indicted for helping 17,000 customers evade taxes by setting up offshore accounts. Allegedly.

4. In past years, Turon Travel, the official site for Art Basel travel, listed dozens of sold-out South Florida hotels months before the fair. Now, as expected, the $160/night Days Inn is completely booked, but the medial-priced Ritz-Carlton and Marriott, amongst others (31 out of 39, to be exact) have more than enough rooms available for college kids on winter break. Please note: they are sure to ruin the aura of prestige.

5. This party will no longer be a feeding frenzy and booze-binge site. Orders made to Southern Wine & Spirits are down at least 20 percent from last year. Bartenders, out. Champagne, in. I’d rethink cutting back on this element, though. Being under the influence can make a person act impulsively and without reason…necessary when buying art.

It’s doubtful any records will be made this year. But, it would be a complete shame to miss the famed Rubell Family Collection’s “30 Americans” exhibition, of which 5 participating artists are featured in our December/January issue – on newsstands now.

December 4 – 7. http://www.artbaselmiamibeach.com

-Danielle Cheesman