Bet On It: Oscar Predix

Penelope Cruz will be going home with a little golden man on Oscar night.

The Academy Awards are a little over two weeks away, so it’s time to start getting those office pools organized, people!  To help you out, I’ll be revealing my predictions for some of the major awards before the February 22nd telecast, starting today with Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Josh Brolin: Milk
Robert Downey Jr: Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman: Doubt
Heath Ledger: The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon: Revolutionary Road

Who Will Win: They might as just re-title this the “Heath Ledger Memorial Award.”

Who Should Win: Ledger was a terrific Joker, no question, but I’d love to see Robert Downey Jr. triumph.  The dude took on a seemingly impossible role and pulled it off without breaking a sweat.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I can’t tell you who shouldn’t have been nominated–Philip Seymour Hoffman.  Not because he isn’t great mind you, but because he’s a freaking lead actor in Doubt.  I would have preferred to see Eddie Marsan from Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky take Hoffman’s spot.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams: Doubt
Penelope Cruz: Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis: Doubt
Taraji P. Henson: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei: The Wrestler

Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz will finally get the statue she arguably should have won for Volver.  Although there’s a 10% chance that Viola Davis could still pull off an upset victory.

Who Should Win: Cruz again.  She really is terrific in Woody Allen’s best movie in years.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: It was a tough year for female supporting performances, but Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married delivered a standout turn.  In fact, she deserves a nomination more than that film’s leading lady, Anne Hathaway, who is up for Best Actress.